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7

The Liffey

5yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 90

Ascot · Colliers Business Rates Experts Classified Stakes (Str) · 1m

#3

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Made hay in Dundalk claimers prior to a successful stable debut at Kempton (1m) in July. Backed that up when runner-up in a highly competitive Glorious Goodwood (7f) handicap. Slow start didn't help his cause at Doncaster (6.5f) latest. Could bounce back returning to 1m/slightly calmer waters.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength47%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA89 @ Dundalk 28/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 89 · 7f Std 140 · below its mark28/01/2026 · OR 89 par28/0189OR 89C8 @ Dundalk 13/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 86 · 1m Std 136 · beat its mark13/02/2026 · OR 86 parC8 @ Dundalk 27/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 86 · 6f Std 142 · beat its mark27/02/2026 · OR 86 par27/02C8OR 86C7 @ Dundalk 27/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 86 · 7f Std 139 · below its mark27/03/2026 · OR 86 parC7 @ Dundalk 26/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 85 · 1m Std 136 · beat its mark26/05/2026 · OR 85 par26/05C7OR 854 @ Kempton 02/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 85 · 1m Sta 135 · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 85 par3 @ Goodwood 29/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 20 · OR 89 · 7f Goo 130 · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 89 par29/073OR 892 @ Kempton 05/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 91 · 1m Sta 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 91 par2 @ Doncaster 13/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 91 · 6f111y Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 91 par13/092OR 91projClass-projected finish: 5th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Doncaster210th9th+1
2026-09-05Kempton26th5th+1
2026-07-29Goodwood32nd2nd0
2026-07-02Kempton41st2nd−1
2026-05-26Dundalk?1st5th−4
2026-03-27Dundalk?5th9th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0127/0329/0713/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength69%

Delivery trend +5.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/01/20266th28/10%29%+0.29
13/02/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
27/02/20261st16/583%100%+0.17
27/03/20265th10/1195%33%-0.62
26/05/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
02/07/20261st25/10%100%+1.00
29/07/20262nd22/10%95%+0.95
05/09/20266th11/142%62%+0.19
13/09/202610th33/10%25%+0.25