1
Galilean Quality
3yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 97
Ascot · BetMGM Noel Murless Stakes (Listed) · 1m 6f 34y
#1
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
98%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Haydock | 2 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-22 | York | 2 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Ascot | 3 | 1st | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-18 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-29 | Wolverhampton | 3 | 1st | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-05-07 | Chester | 3 | 3rd | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength92%
Delivery trend +2.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 06/10/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 11/04/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 07/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |
| 29/05/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 18/06/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 72% | +0.72 |
| 11/07/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 22/08/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 94% | +0.57 |
| 05/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |