Galiyan
3yo Colt · 9-3 · OR 106
Ascot · BetMGM Noel Murless Stakes (Listed) · 1m 6f 34y
#4
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Doncaster | 1 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-08-19 | York | 1 | 5th | 5th | +0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Newmarket | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | +0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 6th | 6th | +0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Chester | 2 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-16 | Newmarket | 2 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +15.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/04/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 08/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 17/06/2026 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 19/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 12/09/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |