4
Infraad
3yo Colt · 9-3 · OR 106
Ascot · BetMGM Noel Murless Stakes (Listed) · 1m 6f 34y
#2
Rank
Odds
8/11
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#2
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 1.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | York | 2 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-29 | Goodwood | 2 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-10 | Chester | 3 | 3rd | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-04-29 | Pontefract | 3 | 1st | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-04-08 | Nottingham | 3 | 3rd | 6th | −2 |
| 2025-10-24 | Doncaster | 2 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.3% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 08/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 75% | -0.19 |
| 29/04/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 10/07/2026 | 3rd | 8/13 | 97% | 71% | -0.25 |
| 29/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 22/08/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |