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5

Level Look

3yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 91

Ascot · BetMGM Noel Murless Stakes (Listed) · 1m 6f 34y

#5

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has been suited by stepping up in trip on his last 2 outings (both 4-runner handicaps), getting back to winning ways at Wolverhampton (1¾m) and also scoring by a wide-margin at Southwell (16.5f) 15 days ago. Faces a tougher ask in this contest.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲3
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.9
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Kempton 01/12/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR - · 1m Sta 1331/1255 @ Lingfield 22/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 1m1y Std 1333 @ Newcastle 09/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR - · 1m2f42y Std 1339/0134 @ Newmarket 17/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 80 · 1m4f GF 133 · below its mark17/07/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ Chester 02/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 78 · 1m4f63y Gd 127 · beat its mark02/08/2026 · OR 78 par2/084OR 783 @ Ascot 08/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 78 · 1m3f211y GF 128 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Wolverhampton 07/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 78 · 1m6f Std 130 · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 78 par7/094OR 784 @ Southwell 17/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 78 · 2m102y Std 130 · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 78 par17/094OR 78projClass-projected finish: 6th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Southwell41st5th−3
2026-09-07Wolverhampton41st5th−3
2026-08-08Ascot36th9th−2
2026-08-02Chester42nd6th−3
2026-07-17Newmarket44th8th−3
2026-01-09Newcastle31st4th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/1217/077/0917/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength12%

Delivery trend -2.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/12/202510th80/10%0%0.00
22/12/20254th200/10%73%+0.73
09/01/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
17/07/20264th11/486%0%-0.86
02/08/20262nd7/491%83%-0.07
08/08/20266th18/15%44%+0.39
07/09/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06
17/09/20261st2/598%100%+0.02