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14

Diligently

4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 87

Ascot · BetMGM Handicap · 6f

#12

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Responded well to get up late in 12-runner handicap at Windsor in June and back to that sort of form when runner-up over same C&D in August. Disappointed here (not for the first time) since, however.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Windsor 18/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 84 · 6f12y Goo 134 · beat its mark18/08/2025 · OR 84 par18/084OR 843 @ Thirsk 06/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 85 · 6f Goo 133 · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 85 par2 @ Newmarket 15/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 86 · 6f Gd 121 · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 86 par15/042OR 863 @ Goodwood 01/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 86 · 6f Gd 131 · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 86 par3 @ Windsor 11/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 84 · 6f12y Goo 129 · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 84 par11/053OR 843 @ Windsor 15/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 84 · 6f12y Goo 129 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 84 par3 @ Ascot 10/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 86 · 6f GF 133 · below its mark10/07/2026 · OR 86 par10/073OR 862 @ Windsor 10/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 86 · 6f12y GF 125 · beat its mark10/08/2026 · OR 86 par2 @ Ascot 05/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 88 · 6f Goo 129 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 88 par5/092OR 88projClass-projected finish: 11th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Ascot26th6th0
2026-08-10Windsor22nd2nd0
2026-07-10Ascot310th11th−1
2026-06-15Windsor31st2nd−1
2026-05-11Windsor38th9th−1
2026-05-01Goodwood34th5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/081/0510/075/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 1824% of fieldRange 11-18 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -6.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 14th of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/08/20251st10/147%100%+0.53
06/09/20252nd11/142%93%+0.51
15/04/20264th16/116%75%+0.59
01/05/20264th3/184%63%-0.22
11/05/20268th11/486%13%-0.73
15/06/20261st17/255%100%+0.45
10/07/202610th11/271%10%-0.61
10/08/20262nd11/271%93%+0.22
05/09/20266th12/137%58%+0.21