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5yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 96

Ascot · BetMGM Handicap · 6f

#9

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

A 3-time winner in the US earlier in his career and returned to his best when successful at Thirsk (6f) in May. Largely run well in defeat since, including when second of 10 in handicap at Haydock (5f, soft) 6 days ago. Enters calculations.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 2
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ York 13/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 22 · OR 95 · 6f Gd 130 · beat its mark13/05/2026 · OR 95 par13/052OR 952 @ Thirsk 31/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 95 · 6f Goo 131 · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 95 par2 @ Royal Ascot 20/06/2026 · Pos 13th of 27 · OR 95 · 6f GF 130 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 95 par20/062OR 952 @ Windsor 29/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 99 · 6f12y GF 141 · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 99 par2 @ Ascot 11/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 98 · 5f GF 133 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 98 par11/072OR 982 @ Goodwood 01/08/2026 · Pos 24th of 27 · OR 99 · 6f GF 129 · below its mark01/08/2026 · OR 99 par2 @ Ascot 08/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 98 · 5f GF 138 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 98 par8/082OR 982 @ Goodwood 30/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 97 · 6f Sft 136 · below its mark30/08/2026 · OR 97 par2 @ Haydock 26/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 96 · 5f Hvy 138 · beat its mark26/09/2026 · OR 96 par26/092OR 96projClass-projected finish: 12th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-26Haydock22nd2nd0
2026-08-30Goodwood210th10th0
2026-08-08Ascot23rd3rd0
2026-08-01Goodwood224th24th0
2026-07-11Ascot23rd3rd0
2026-06-29Windsor24th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0529/068/0826/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1835% of fieldRange 4-18 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength37%

Delivery trend -7.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/05/20263rd50/10%90%+0.90
31/05/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
20/06/202613th50/10%54%+0.54
29/06/20264th9/488%67%-0.21
11/07/20263rd11/142%86%+0.44
01/08/202624th33/10%12%+0.12
08/08/20263rd5/174%78%+0.04
30/08/202610th12/137%0%-0.37
26/09/20262nd12/137%89%+0.52