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Far Above Dream

4yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 101

Ascot · BetMGM Handicap · 6f

#13

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Improving sprinter has been another success story for his excellent yard (23 lb higher than his win on handicap/stable debut last June). Rare below-par effort in Ayr Gold Cup latest but went agonisingly close in York handicap that's worked out extremely well previously and must be respected here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength27%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Goodwood 02/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 83 · 6f Hvy 136 · beat its mark02/09/2025 · OR 83 par2/094OR 832 @ Ayr 20/09/2025 · Pos 15th of 25 · OR 84 · 6f Sft 133 · beat its mark20/09/2025 · OR 84 par3 @ Goodwood 12/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 87 · 6f Gd 129 · beat its mark12/10/2025 · OR 87 par12/103OR 873 @ Goodwood 01/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 89 · 6f Gd 134 · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 89 par2 @ Newbury 16/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 95 · 6f Goo 129 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 95 par16/052OR 952 @ Royal Ascot 20/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 27 · OR 99 · 6f GF 129 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 99 par2 @ Goodwood 01/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 27 · OR 99 · 6f GF 129 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 99 par1/082OR 992 @ York 22/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 20 · OR 99 · 6f Goo 133 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 99 par2 @ Ayr 19/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 24 · OR 99 · 6f Hvy 127 · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 99 par19/092OR 99projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Ayr211th11th0
2026-08-22York22nd2nd0
2026-08-01Goodwood26th6th0
2026-06-20Royal Ascot24th4th0
2026-05-16Newbury21st1st0
2026-05-01Goodwood31st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/091/051/0819/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1847% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength77%

Delivery trend -1.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 18.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/09/20251st6/168%100%+0.32
20/09/202515th20/10%42%+0.42
12/10/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
01/05/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
16/05/20261st17/255%100%+0.45
20/06/20264th28/10%88%+0.88
01/08/20266th6/168%81%+0.12
22/08/20262nd16/116%95%+0.79
19/09/202611th4/179%57%-0.22