First Legion
3yo Colt · 8-13 · OR 89
Ascot · BetMGM Handicap · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Ascot | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-13 | York | 2 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Leicester | 3 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-13 | York | 3 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Newmarket | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | Newmarket | 2 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 18. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 06/09/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 22% | -0.25 |
| 02/10/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 16/04/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 58% | +0.21 |
| 02/05/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 13/05/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 69% | -0.10 |
| 25/05/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 73% | -0.09 |
| 13/06/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 81% | +0.34 |
| 04/09/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |