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17

Ironwill

3yo Colt · 8-11 · OR 87

Ascot · BetMGM Handicap · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Headstrong sort who landed the third win of his career when getting up in the final strides at Newmarket (7f) in July. Largely remained in good form since and looks worth another crack at this shorter trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Beverley 23/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 5f Sft 13523/0952 @ Newmarket 16/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 89 · 6f Gd 124 · beat its mark16/04/2026 · OR 89 par2 @ Goodwood 23/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 17 · OR 87 · 7f Gd 119 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 87 par23/052OR 873 @ Sandown 13/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 85 · 7f Goo 128 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 85 par3 @ Newmarket 04/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 85 · 7f GF 130 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 85 par4/073OR 852 @ Goodwood 01/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 87 · 7f GF 117 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 87 par2 @ York 21/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 19 · OR 88 · 7f192y GS 124 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 88 par21/082OR 882 @ Goodwood 29/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 87 · 7f GS 116 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 87 par2 @ Doncaster 13/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 87 · 7f6y Gd 124 · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 87 par13/092OR 87projClass-projected finish: 4th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Doncaster23rd3rd0
2026-08-29Goodwood24th4th0
2026-08-21York210th10th0
2026-08-01Goodwood22nd2nd0
2026-07-04Newmarket31st2nd−1
2026-06-13Sandown33rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0913/0621/0813/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1882% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength81%

Delivery trend +3.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 18. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/09/20251st6/492%100%+0.08
16/04/20265th9/153%67%+0.14
23/05/20265th11/142%75%+0.33
13/06/20263rd12/137%78%+0.41
04/07/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
01/08/20262nd10/147%92%+0.44
21/08/202610th25/10%50%+0.50
29/08/20264th14/126%70%+0.44
13/09/20263rd7/163%85%+0.21