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13

Northcliff

6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 87

Ascot · BetMGM Handicap · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

17%

Place Prob

29%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Built on promise of previous run when making a winning debut for new yard in 9-runner handicap at Newmarket (6f, good to firm) 13 days ago, comfortably. Raised 7 lb since but useful claimer has been booked. Player.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -2.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Chepstow 29/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 64 · 7f16y Goo 134 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 64 par29/056OR 645 @ Newmarket 19/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 16 · OR 67 · 6f Goo 132 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Windsor 29/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 67 · 6f12y GF 134 · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 67 par29/065OR 674 @ Ascot 11/07/2026 · Pos 17th of 17 · OR 66 · 7f GF 128 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 66 par6 @ Thirsk 01/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 65 · 6f Goo 139 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 65 par1/086OR 655 @ Newmarket 14/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 67 · 6f GF 137 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Goodwood 28/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 70 · 6f GF 135 · beat its mark28/08/2026 · OR 70 par28/085OR 702 @ Ascot 05/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 71 · 6f Goo 121 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 71 par4 @ Newmarket 19/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 80 · 6f Gd 133 · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 80 par19/094OR 80projClass-projected finish: 8th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Newmarket41st3rd−2
2026-09-05Ascot23rd3rd0
2026-08-28Goodwood52nd6th−3
2026-08-14Newmarket52nd6th−3
2026-08-01Thirsk62nd7th−4
2026-07-11Ascot417th19th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0511/0728/0819/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 18100% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength83%

Delivery trend +4.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 18. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/05/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
19/06/20264th11/271%80%+0.09
29/06/20266th5/174%38%-0.36
11/07/202617th11/271%0%-0.71
01/08/20262nd6/492%88%-0.05
14/08/20262nd15/261%91%+0.30
28/08/20262nd5/287%83%-0.04
05/09/20263rd11/142%83%+0.41
19/09/20261st9/276%100%+0.24