Orion's Belt
3yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 92
Ascot · BetMGM Handicap · 6f
#11
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 6.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Ascot | 2 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Deauville | 1 | 10th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-07-29 | Goodwood | 1 | 11th | 9th | +1 |
| 2025-09-27 | Newmarket | 1 | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2025-09-12 | Salisbury | 1 | 2nd | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-08-24 | Goodwood | 1 | 6th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +5.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 18. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/06/2025 | 4th | 5/6 | 96% | 67% | -0.29 |
| 12/07/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 24/07/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |
| 24/08/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 17% | -0.52 |
| 12/09/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 90% | +0.27 |
| 27/09/2025 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/07/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 15/08/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 05/09/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |