IvyArcIvyArc
10

Pilu

3yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 91

Ascot · BetMGM Handicap · 6f

#7

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Back to winning ways at Newmarket in August and upped his game further when following up in 9-runner handicap (4/1) at Yarmouth (6f, good) 15 days ago by length from Another Abbot. This is more competitive but he looks sure to go well again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Bath 01/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 5f160y Goo 1331/0844 @ Salisbury 29/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 6f Goo 1342 @ Salisbury 02/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 87 · 6f Gd 134 · beat its mark02/10/2025 · OR 87 par2/102OR 872 @ Newmarket 02/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 87 · 6f GF 125 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 87 par3 @ Leicester 25/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 86 · 6f Goo 131 · beat its mark25/05/2026 · OR 86 par25/053OR 862 @ Newmarket 09/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 88 · 6f Goo 122 · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 88 par3 @ Goodwood 30/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 18 · OR 87 · 5f Goo 127 · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 87 par30/073OR 874 @ Newmarket 22/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 86 · 6f Gd 138 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 86 par3 @ Yarmouth 17/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 88 · 6f3y Gd 131 · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 88 par17/093OR 88projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Yarmouth31st2nd−1
2026-08-22Newmarket41st3rd−2
2026-07-30Goodwood38th9th−1
2026-07-09Newmarket25th5th0
2026-05-25Leicester32nd3rd−1
2026-05-02Newmarket26th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/082/0530/0717/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1871% of fieldRange 1-18 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength55%

Delivery trend -2.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/08/20251st28/10%100%+1.00
29/08/20251st11/893%100%+0.07
02/10/20254th9/488%0%-0.88
02/05/20266th14/126%50%+0.24
25/05/20262nd7/282%91%+0.09
09/07/20265th6/168%67%-0.02
30/07/20268th6/168%59%-0.10
22/08/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
17/09/20261st4/179%100%+0.21