7
Ray Mon Dough
3yo Colt · 9-2 · OR 92
Ascot · BetMGM Handicap · 6f
#16
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#16
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Thirsk | 3 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-08-17 | Windsor | 4 | 8th | 10th | −2 |
| 2026-08-09 | Leicester | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-25 | Chester | 3 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-18 | Lingfield | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-04-30 | Kempton | 4 | 6th | 8th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish17th of 186% of fieldRange 17-18 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 17th of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 30/04/2026 | 6th | 5/4 | 93% | 62% | -0.32 |
| 18/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 25/07/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 09/08/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 17/08/2026 | 8th | 6/4 | 92% | 0% | -0.92 |
| 05/09/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 63% | -0.03 |