2
Wiltshire
6yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 100
Ascot · BetMGM Handicap · 6f
#15
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#15
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.4 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Ayr | 2 | 24th | 24th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Newcastle | 1 | 11th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Newbury | 2 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Newcastle | 2 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Lingfield | 2 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-16 | Newcastle | 2 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 1812% of fieldRange 14-18 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 16th of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/11/2024 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 82% | +0.08 |
| 06/04/2025 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 01/01/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 16/01/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 14/02/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 03/04/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 16/05/2026 | 11th | 8/1 | 58% | 23% | -0.35 |
| 27/06/2026 | 11th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 19/09/2026 | 24th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |