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16

Yordan

3yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 87

Ascot · BetMGM Handicap · 6f

#6

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Confirmed debut promise when getting off the mark in good style at Southwell in August and improved on that when easily following up at Newcastle (6f) last month. Likely more to come on handicap debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 1.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Leicester 29/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR - · 7f Goo 13029/0744 @ Southwell 16/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 6f16y Std 13316/0844 @ Newcastle 02/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 6f1y Std 1372/094projClass-projected finish: 10th of 18
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Newcastle41st3rd−2
2026-08-16Southwell41st3rd−2
2026-07-29Leicester42nd4th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0716/082/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1865% of fieldRange 11-13 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength38%

Delivery trend -9.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/07/20262nd10/147%67%+0.19
16/08/20261st6/594%100%+0.06
02/09/20261st2/1399%100%+0.01