2
Cranachan
3yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 88
Ascot · Melbourne Cup Carnival Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 7f 209y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/4
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
96%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength7%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Chester | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-17 | Newmarket | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Doncaster | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-22 | Catterick | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-02 | Kempton | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-12-03 | Kempton | 5 | 6th | 8th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +7.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/12/2025 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 29% | -0.53 |
| 02/03/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 88% | +0.06 |
| 22/04/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 25% | -0.63 |
| 17/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 22/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |