Hot Fuss
5yo Gelding · 10-4 · OR 92
Ascot · Melbourne Cup Carnival Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 7f 209y
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | Aintree | 1 | 14th | 12th | +2 |
| 2026-03-13 | Cheltenham | 2 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-02-28 | Kelso | 2 | +1 | ||
| 2026-01-16 | Windsor | 2 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-01-03 | Sandown | 3 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-20 | Ascot | 1 | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/03/2025 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 86% | +0.30 |
| 09/05/2025 | 11th | 8/1 | 58% | 29% | -0.29 |
| 08/11/2025 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 52% | +0.52 |
| 29/11/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 20/12/2025 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 03/01/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 57% | -0.30 |
| 16/01/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 13/03/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 96% | +0.96 |
| 10/04/2026 | 14th | 11/1 | 42% | 38% | -0.04 |