4
Just An Hour
6yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 72
Ascot · Melbourne Cup Carnival Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 7f 209y
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength27%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Ffos Las | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-24 | Windsor | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-08-10 | Windsor | 5 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-07-23 | Newbury | 5 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-07-11 | Chester | 5 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-06-14 | Salisbury | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 2-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength62%
Delivery trend -0.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/04/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 26/04/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 14/05/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 38% | -0.10 |
| 14/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 11/07/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 57% | -0.24 |
| 23/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 71% | -0.20 |
| 10/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 24/08/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 21/09/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |