3
Must Believe
4yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 77
Ascot · Melbourne Cup Carnival Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 7f 209y
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Kempton | 5 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-08-12 | Kempton | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Goodwood | 4 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-05-04 | Kempton | 5 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-02-04 | Kempton | 5 | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-01-15 | Chelmsford City | 5 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength96%
Delivery trend +7.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10/2025 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 25% | -0.66 |
| 26/11/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 20/12/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |
| 15/01/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 04/02/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 04/05/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 05/06/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 13% | -0.30 |
| 12/08/2026 | 3rd | 50/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 04/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |