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5

Shipshape

4yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 75

Ascot · Melbourne Cup Carnival Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 7f 209y

#4

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Three-time winner this year, latest at Chester in June. Back to form when good third of 10 in handicap at same course (2m, good to soft, 18/1) 20 days ago and can't be discounted here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength25%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Southwell 11/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 65 · 1m4f14y Std 135 · beat its mark11/03/2026 · OR 65 par11/036OR 656 @ Wolverhampton 31/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 63 · 1m5f219y Std 137 · beat its mark31/03/2026 · OR 63 par5 @ Southwell 15/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 63 · 1m6f21y Std 129 · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 63 par15/045OR 635 @ Thirsk 02/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 67 · 1m6f Goo 127 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 67 par4 @ Hamilton 27/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 68 · 1m5f16y Goo 123 · beat its mark27/05/2026 · OR 68 par27/054OR 684 @ Chester 13/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 71 · 1m4f63y Goo 126 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 71 par4 @ Chester 27/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 75 · 1m7f196y Goo 130 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 75 par27/064OR 754 @ Carlisle 11/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 75 · 1m6f32y Goo 136 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 75 par2 @ Chester 12/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 74 · 1m7f196y Sft 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 74 par12/092OR 74projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Chester23rd2nd+1
2026-08-11Carlisle45th6th−1
2026-06-27Chester42nd3rd−1
2026-06-13Chester41st2nd−1
2026-05-27Hamilton41st2nd−1
2026-05-02Thirsk52nd4th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/032/0527/0612/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength67%

Delivery trend -2.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/03/20265th22/10%43%+0.43
31/03/20262nd15/261%89%+0.28
15/04/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
02/05/20262nd11/893%75%-0.18
27/05/20261st5/493%100%+0.07
13/06/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
27/06/20262nd13/891%83%-0.08
11/08/20265th4/179%20%-0.59
12/09/20263rd18/15%78%+0.73