6
Vaguely Royal
6yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 73
Ascot · Melbourne Cup Carnival Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 7f 209y
#3
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Musselburgh | 4 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-24 | York | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Chester | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-01 | Newbury | 4 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Pontefract | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-17 | Ripon | 5 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength39%
Delivery trend -4.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/03/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 44% | +0.39 |
| 03/04/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 23/04/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 50% | -0.40 |
| 17/05/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |
| 22/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 01/06/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 29% | -0.32 |
| 11/07/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 24/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 25/08/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 38% | -0.41 |