1
Essence L Vee
3yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 80
Belmont Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
90%
Place Prob
64%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-01 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-03-29 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-02-15 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-11-02 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 9th | 7th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength56%
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 05/10/2025 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 02/11/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/02/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 29/03/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 01/05/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 27/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 20/08/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |