Expecto Patronum
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 66
Belmont Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-04-08 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-07-26 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2025-05-02 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-02-28 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -10.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/01/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 01/02/2025 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 18% | +0.02 |
| 28/02/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 02/05/2025 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 26/07/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 08/04/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 24/04/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 31/07/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 29% | -0.54 |