5
That'sthefactjack
5yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 67
Belmont Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +6.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/12/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 13% | -0.35 |
| 15/01/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 19/02/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 12/03/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 03/04/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 16/05/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 25/06/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 09/08/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 30/08/2026 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |