4
Mendel
2yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 60
Belmont Park · Race 2 - Bertram F. Bongard Stakes · 6f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 10.5 /10 (raw 8.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Belmont Park | ? | 8th | 10th | −2 |
| 2026-08-06 | Saratoga | ? | 11th | 13th | −2 |
| 2026-07-12 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength17%
Delivery trend +1.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 06/08/2026 | 11th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 20/09/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |