5
Saratoga Tea
2yo Colt · 8-8 · OR 83
Belmont Park · Race 2 - Bertram F. Bongard Stakes · 6f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Belmont Park | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-08-15 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-07-12 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength45%
Delivery trend +7.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 15/08/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 20/09/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 73% | -0.01 |