5
Frosty Blaze
2yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 71
Belmont Park · Race 3 - Joseph A. Gimma Stakes · 6f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Belmont Park | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-09-02 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 4-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength57%
Delivery trend -15.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 78% | +0.51 |
| 18/09/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 73% | +0.36 |