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13

Belmont C. C.

2yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 59

Belmont Park · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼3
Strength82%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Saratoga 17/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 5f110y Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS17/07C6C6 @ Saratoga 26/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 75 · 6f110y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/08/2026 · OR 75 par26/08C6OR 75projClass-projected finish: 1st of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-26Saratoga?4th1st+3
2026-07-17Saratoga?4th1st+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0726/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1350% of fieldRange 13-13 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -66.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/07/20264th16/116%67%+0.51
26/08/20264th13/266%50%-0.16