IvyArcIvyArc
2

Freshly Minted

2yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 38

Belmont Park · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

#10

Rank

Odds

30/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#10

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼3
Strength78%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Saratoga 17/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR - · 5f110y Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS17/07C6C6 @ Saratoga 26/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 48 · 6f110y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/08/2026 · OR 48 par26/08C6OR 48projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-26Saratoga?5th2nd+3
2026-07-17Saratoga?9th6th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0726/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1333% of fieldRange 6-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength56%

Delivery trend +22.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/07/20269th33/10%11%+0.11
26/08/20265th25/10%33%+0.33