Leo's Reward
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 77
Belmont Park · Race 5 - Claiming · 7f
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-04-18 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-12-07 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2025-10-19 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2025-09-20 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 29% | -0.48 |
| 26/07/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.40 |
| 24/08/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 20/09/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 19/10/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 07/12/2025 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 29% | -0.37 |
| 18/04/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 07/06/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.03 |
| 30/07/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |