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16

Noble One

5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 74

Belmont Park · Race 5 - Claiming · 7f

#16

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#16

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 6.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Aqueduct 06/02/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 54 · 1m Slo 122 · below its mark06/02/2025 · OR 54 par6/02C9OR 54C9 @ Aqueduct 02/03/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 51 · 1m1f Fas 126 · below its mark02/03/2025 · OR 51 parC9 @ Aqueduct 16/03/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 54 · 1m Fas 126 · below its mark16/03/2025 · OR 54 par16/03C9OR 54C9 @ Aqueduct 03/04/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 53 · 1m Fas 126 · below its mark03/04/2025 · OR 53 parC9 @ Belmont At The Big A 05/10/2025 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 56 · 6f Fm 124 · below its mark05/10/2025 · OR 56 par5/10C9OR 56C9 @ Belmont At The Big A 24/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 58 · 1m Fas 124 · below its mark24/10/2025 · OR 58 parC9 @ Belmont At The Big A 07/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 60 · 1m110y Fm 126 · beat its mark07/05/2026 · OR 60 par7/05C9OR 60C8 @ Belmont At The Big A 23/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 66 · 1m110y Gd 126 · below its mark23/05/2026 · OR 66 parC7 @ Delaware Park 09/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 79 · 1m Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/09/2026 · OR 79 par9/09C7OR 79projClass-projected finish: 11th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Delaware Park?4th3rd+1
2026-05-23Belmont At The Big A?9th9th0
2026-05-07Belmont At The Big A?1st2nd−1
2025-10-24Belmont At The Big A?9th10th−1
2025-10-05Belmont At The Big A?12th13th−1
2025-04-03Aqueduct?6th7th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/023/047/059/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1627% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength61%

Delivery trend +6.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/02/20258th50/10%0%0.00
02/03/20255th50/10%43%+0.43
16/03/20256th40/10%29%+0.29
03/04/20256th33/10%0%0.00
05/10/202512th66/10%0%0.00
24/10/20259th50/10%11%+0.11
07/05/20261st20/10%100%+1.00
23/05/20269th40/10%20%+0.20
09/09/20264th20/10%70%+0.70