IvyArcIvyArc
3

Out Of The Fog

4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 71

Belmont Park · Race 5 - Claiming · 7f

#12

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength1%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Belmont At The Big A 26/09/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 77 · 6f 121 · below its mark26/09/2025 · OR 77 par26/09C9OR 77C9 @ Aqueduct 12/11/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 74 · 6f Fm 120 · below its mark12/11/2025 · OR 74 parC9 @ Turfway Park 18/01/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 67 · 6f110y 122 · below its mark18/01/2026 · OR 67 par18/01C9OR 67C9 @ Turfway Park 08/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 61 · 6f 125 · beat its mark08/02/2026 · OR 61 parC9 @ Turfway Park 01/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 66 · 6f110y 125 · below its mark01/03/2026 · OR 66 par1/03C9OR 66C9 @ Belmont At The Big A 02/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 70 · 6f Fm 126 · below its mark02/05/2026 · OR 70 parC9 @ Saratoga 03/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 66 · 1m110y Fm 126 · below its mark03/06/2026 · OR 66 par3/06C9OR 66C9 @ Saratoga 12/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 66 · 5f110y Fm 126 · beat its mark12/07/2026 · OR 66 parC8 @ Saratoga 20/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 68 · 5f110y Fm 126 · below its mark20/08/2026 · OR 68 par20/08C8OR 68projClass-projected finish: 14th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-20Saratoga?6th6th0
2026-07-12Saratoga?1st2nd−1
2026-06-03Saratoga?7th8th−1
2026-05-02Belmont At The Big A?7th8th−1
2026-03-01Turfway Park?6th7th−1
2026-02-08Turfway Park?2nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/098/023/0620/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1633% of fieldRange 1-16 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength55%

Delivery trend +8.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/09/202510th15/261%0%-0.61
12/11/202510th8/158%0%-0.58
18/01/20269th25/10%27%+0.27
08/02/20262nd33/10%90%+0.90
01/03/20266th25/10%55%+0.55
02/05/20267th5/174%25%-0.49
03/06/20267th25/10%45%+0.45
12/07/20261st14/126%100%+0.74
20/08/20266th12/137%29%-0.08