Peyton

4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 76

Belmont Park · Race 5 - Claiming · 7f

Rank

Odds

30/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength36%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.0

Today:

Class gap: +0.5

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-09	Saratoga	?	8th	7th	+1	3.2
2026-05-16	Belmont At The Big A	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-04-17	Aqueduct	?	4th	2nd	+2	7.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish13th of 1620% of fieldRange 7-16 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -16.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 16. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
17/04/2026	4th	100/1	0%	63%	+0.63
16/05/2026	1st	1/1	95%	100%	+0.05
09/07/2026	8th	25/1	0%	30%	+0.30