Sicilian Defense
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 90
Belmont Park · Race 5 - Claiming · 7f
#11
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-16 | Saratoga | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Keeneland | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2025-06-01 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
| 2025-04-09 | Keeneland | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 14th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/2024 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 18/01/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 63% | -0.23 |
| 15/02/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 91% | +0.25 |
| 09/04/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 55% | +0.02 |
| 01/06/2025 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 27% | -0.44 |
| 11/04/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 29/05/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 29% | -0.29 |
| 16/07/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 11% | -0.36 |
| 07/09/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |