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9

The Markinater

3yo Colt · 8-11 · OR 72

Belmont Park · Race 5 - Claiming · 7f

#3

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength64%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Aqueduct 14/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 6f Fm 119 · HIGHER CLASS14/11C6C6 @ Aqueduct 13/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 80 · 6f 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/12/2025 · OR 80 par13/12C6OR 80C6 @ Penn National 21/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 49 · 6f Slo 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/02/2026 · OR 49 par21/02C6OR 49C6 @ Penn National 19/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 53 · 5f110y Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/03/2026 · OR 53 par19/03C6OR 53C8 @ Monmouth Park 16/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 59 · 5f110y Fm 120 · beat its mark16/08/2026 · OR 59 par16/08C8OR 59projClass-projected finish: 1st of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-16Monmouth Park?2nd2nd0
2026-03-19Penn National?1st-1th+2
2026-02-21Penn National?2nd0th+2
2025-12-13Aqueduct?7th5th+2
2025-11-14Aqueduct?6th4th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/1113/1221/0219/0316/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1693% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength69%

Delivery trend +7.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/11/20256th33/10%29%+0.29
13/12/20257th33/10%0%0.00
21/02/20262nd9/153%83%+0.31
19/03/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
16/08/20262nd14/126%80%+0.54