4
Two Ducks
3yo Colt · 8-11 · OR 79
Belmont Park · Race 5 - Claiming · 7f
#8
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Saratoga | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-07-10 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-01 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1687% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength81%
Delivery trend +9.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/02/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 07/03/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 67% | -0.24 |
| 09/04/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 01/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 22/05/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 75% | +0.09 |
| 21/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 07/08/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/08/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 86% | +0.59 |