Bernin Hot
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 89
Belmont Park · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-02-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | -3th | +7 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 18/09/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 15/11/2025 | 11th | 7/1 | 63% | 23% | -0.40 |
| 28/02/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/05/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 30/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 13/06/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 18/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 71% | -0.17 |
| 07/09/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |