IvyArcIvyArc
2

Castle Chaos

8yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 94

Belmont Park · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m

#9

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength44%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC1 @ Saratoga 07/06/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR - · 1m Slo 116 · HIGHER CLASS7/06C1C6 @ Belmont At The Big A 27/06/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 108 · 1m Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/06/2025 · OR 108 parC6 @ Aqueduct 28/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 100 · 1m Gd 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/02/2026 · OR 100 par28/02C6OR 100C8 @ Aqueduct 11/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 94 · 7f 126 · beat its mark11/04/2026 · OR 94 parC8 @ Belmont At The Big A 03/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 97 · 1m 123 · below its mark03/05/2026 · OR 97 par3/05C8OR 97C8 @ Belmont At The Big A 25/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 97 · 1m110y Slo 123 · beat its mark25/05/2026 · OR 97 parC8 @ Saratoga 17/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 100 · 7f Fas 123 · below its mark17/07/2026 · OR 100 par17/07C8OR 100C8 @ Saratoga 26/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 98 · 1m Fas 123 · below its mark26/07/2026 · OR 98 parC8 @ Saratoga 07/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 99 · 1m Fas 123 · below its mark07/09/2026 · OR 99 par7/09C8OR 99projClass-projected finish: 9th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Saratoga?3rd3rd0
2026-07-26Saratoga?4th4th0
2026-07-17Saratoga?4th4th0
2026-05-25Belmont At The Big A?1st1st0
2026-05-03Belmont At The Big A?2nd2nd0
2026-04-11Aqueduct?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/0611/0417/077/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength70%

Delivery trend +1.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/06/20255th40/10%0%0.00
27/06/20255th14/126%20%-0.06
28/02/20266th14/126%38%+0.11
11/04/20261st4/696%100%+0.04
03/05/20262nd7/282%75%-0.07
25/05/20261st11/893%100%+0.07
17/07/20264th10/147%50%+0.03
26/07/20264th9/153%40%-0.13
07/09/20263rd12/137%71%+0.35