Le Gris
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 100
Belmont Park · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-05-23 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-05-01 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-03-27 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-03-05 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -9.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 18/10/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 30/11/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 05/02/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |
| 05/03/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 27/03/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 01/05/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 23/05/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 25/07/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |