9
Sir Duke
3yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 81
Belmont Park · Race 7 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
19%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-03-29 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 12-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -48.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 17/07/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 57% | -0.24 |
| 23/08/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |