4
New Rose
3yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 94
Belmont Park · Race 9 - Allowance · 6f 110y
#14
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Saratoga | ? | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-17 | Keeneland | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 160% of fieldRange 9-16 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -21.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 16th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/04/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 05/06/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 04/07/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 25/07/2026 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 29/08/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 38% | -0.10 |