2
One Last Knock
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 87
Belmont Park · Race 9 - Allowance · 6f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 2.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-03 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-15 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-17 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1660% of fieldRange 12-16 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength7%
Delivery trend -8.3% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 7th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 21/08/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 20/09/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 89% | +0.42 |
| 17/10/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 15/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 89% | +0.02 |
| 16/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 89% | +0.01 |
| 08/05/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 03/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 21/08/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |