3
Speight Her Size
2yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 53
Charles Town · Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight · 4f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.2 /10 (raw 9.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Ellis Park | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength87%
Delivery trend -7.9% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 17/09/2026 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |