Bad Lineage
6yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 72
Charles Town · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 6 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Charles Town | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-08-15 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-08-08 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-07-17 | Charles Town | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-06-19 | Charles Town | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-03-14 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/01/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 06/02/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 21/02/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 14/03/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 19/06/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |
| 17/07/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 08/08/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 15/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/09/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |