Candy Man Can
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 69
Charles Town · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
49%
Place Prob
36%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-07-04 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-06-21 | Charles Town | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-06-06 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-05-16 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 12/12/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |
| 17/01/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 16/05/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 06/06/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 21/06/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/07/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 28/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 19/09/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |