4
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4yo Colt · 9-0 · OR 75
Charles Town · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength87%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.1 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: +1.9
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-08-05 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-05-11 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-11-26 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2025-10-20 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-09-25 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength48%
Delivery trend -4.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/06/2025 | 1st | 1/2 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 13/08/2025 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 08/09/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 25/09/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 20/10/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 25% | -0.62 |
| 26/11/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 11/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 05/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 09/09/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |