IvyArcIvyArc
2

Felicias Cinco

4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 74

Charles Town · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f 110y

#4

Rank

Odds

8/5

Win Prob

5%

Place Prob

12%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength85%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: +2.1
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Charles Town 20/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 60 · 6f110y 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/03/2026 · OR 60 par20/03C6OR 60C9 @ Charles Town 03/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 60 · 7f Fas 126 · beat its mark03/04/2026 · OR 60 parC8 @ Charles Town 24/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 62 · 6f110y Fas 126 · beat its mark24/04/2026 · OR 62 par24/04C8OR 62C8 @ Charles Town 16/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 64 · 6f110y Fas 126 · below its mark16/05/2026 · OR 64 parC5 @ Charles Town 21/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 69 · 7f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/06/2026 · OR 69 par21/06C5OR 69C5 @ Charles Town 24/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 71 · 6f110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 71 parC5 @ Charles Town 16/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 74 · 7f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/08/2026 · OR 74 par16/08C5OR 74C5 @ Charles Town 28/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 74 · 7f Fas 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/08/2026 · OR 74 parC5 @ Charles Town 25/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 81 · 1m110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/09/2026 · OR 81 par25/09C5OR 81projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-25Charles Town?6th3rd+3
2026-08-28Charles Town?7th4th+3
2026-08-16Charles Town?1st-2th+3
2026-07-24Charles Town?5th2nd+3
2026-06-21Charles Town?3rd0th+3
2026-05-16Charles Town?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0316/0516/0825/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/03/20264th7/282%50%-0.32
03/04/20261st2/598%100%+0.02
24/04/20261st4/596%100%+0.04
16/05/20263rd7/163%67%+0.04
21/06/20263rd40/10%71%+0.71
24/07/20265th20/10%43%+0.43
16/08/20261st16/116%100%+0.84
28/08/20267th9/153%25%-0.28
25/09/20266th12/137%38%+0.01