John's Notion
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 75
Charles Town · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-08-28 | Charles Town | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-07-03 | Charles Town | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-04-26 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-11-16 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2025-10-12 | Charles Town | BHA84 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.8% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 17/08/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 12/09/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 12/10/2025 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/11/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 17% | -0.36 |
| 26/04/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/07/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/08/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.03 |
| 26/09/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |