6
Paint The Alley
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 64
Charles Town · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
36%
Place Prob
31%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Charles Town | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
| 2026-06-07 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength94%
Delivery trend +1.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.40 |
| 22/03/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 03/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 02/05/2026 | 1st | 3/10 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 07/06/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 04/07/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/07/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 07/08/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 75% | +0.09 |
| 12/09/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |